Since 2021, the electricity sector has been the scene of political battles with a direct impact on the expansion of energy supply. These are legal and infralegal provisions that introduced obligations to contract generation from specific sources, with predefined deadlines, locations, and volumes, in spite of the technical guidelines of sectoral planning.
A study by TR Soluões describes the main Executive and Legislative movements related to compulsory energy contracting and demonstrates that their average tariff impacts may vary significantly, especially for free consumers, who notice the actual monthly variation in the calculation of the Reserve Energy Charge as part of the short-term market liquidation. But regulatory uncertainty indicates that the picture is far from clear.
In the analysis, in addition to a reference scenario, three scenarios are considered:
It simulates the contracting of thermal power plants provided for in Law No. 14,182/2021 through the reserve energy mechanism, as originally conceived (disregarding the contracting in the Northern region, for which there was no energy supply). It also considers the additional contracting of 1,009 MW of hydroelectric power plants up to 50 MW, since 175 MW have already been contracted at the 37th New Energy Auction (LEN) and 816 MW at the 39th LEN, held on August 22, 2025.
It considers the total overthrow, by Congress, of the President of the Republic's vetoes of Law No. 15,097/2025 (the framework for offshore wind generation), with the mandatory contracting of 8,000 MW of gas-fired power plants and an increase of 4,900 MW in the contracting of hydroelectric power plants, in addition to 250 MWh of hydrogen energy from ethanol in the Northeast, 300 MWm of wind energy in the South region and 1,732 MWm of coal-fired power plants whose regulated contracts are closed by 2028.
It considers hiring only 3,000 MW of small hydroelectric power plants for delivery in 2032, 2033 and 2034, as reserve energy. No other contract was considered due to the limitations imposed by MP 1,304/2025, except those already carried out under Law No. 14,182/2021.
Source: TR Solutions
